Oscar Predictions 2009

The 81st Annual Academy Awards will take place this Sunday, February 22nd, at 5pm Pacific/8pm Eastern. The Academy hired the mostly talented John Singleton (“Boyz N the Hood,” “2 Fast 2 Furious”) to put together an absurdly bathetic spot released in about 11,000 theaters last Friday, which will likely have little impact on increasing the probable lackluster viewer turnout this weekend (even with movie attendance since the beginning of the year up 23 percent from this period one year ago).

Just for the heck of it, I’ll try my hand at guessing the outcome. I will venture as much of an educated guess as possible, trying to take into account past Academy practices or gauging the likely sympathy winner, but it is inevitable that I will have to approach a mostly random pick in categories in which I’m either unfamiliar or underqualified. As a result, my picks won’t reflect my actual opinion (compare my Best Picture pick below with my actual opinion for each nominated film), just what I think the politicking morass of Hollywood might prefer. If I were to put money on this (I’m not), I would more closely consort a page of odds for each category, but I’ll expect some upsets, or rather “upsets.”

I will put my pick in bold and include three asterisks (***) next to films or performances I’ve not seen. I’ll also include my If-there-were-an-Oscars-God pick below each category.

So, now to it!

***

BEST FILM

• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
• “Frost/Nixon”
• “Milk”
• “The Reader”
• “Slumdog Millionaire”

Personal opinion: “Milk” should win, given the options

BEST DIRECTOR

• Danny Boyle for “Slumdog Millionaire”
  
• Stephen Daldry for “The Reader”
• David Fincher for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
• Ron Howard for “Frost/Nixon”
• Gus Van Sant for “Milk”

Personal opinion: David Fincher should win, but there is much talk of Danny Boyle (heavy odds favorite)

BEST ACTOR

• Richard Jenkins for “The Visitor”
• Frank Langella for “Frost/Nixon”
• Sean Penn for “Milk”
• Brad Pitt for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
• Mickey Rourke for “The Wrestler”

Personal opinion: Sean Penn, although I think all except Brad Pitt would be deserving of this award

BEST ACTRESS

• Anne Hathaway for “Rachel Getting Married”
• Angelina Jolie for “Changeling”***
• Melissa Leo for “Frozen River”
• Meryl Streep for “Doubt”
• Kate Winslet for “The Reader”

Personal opinion: Anne Hathaway gave by far my favorite distaff performance of the year, followed then by Melissa Leo; I will ignore the heavy odds going for Kate Winslet and Meryl Streep since I found neither performance to merit special recognition

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Josh Brolin for “Milk”
• Robert Downey Jr. for “Tropic Thunder”
• Phillip Seymour Hoffman for “Doubt”
• Heath Ledger for “The Dark Knight”
• Michael Shannon for “Revolutionary Road”***

Personal opinion: I really think Heath Ledger gave one of the most memorable performances ever for a villain; however, if he did not pass away in the previous year, he would’ve likely been excluded from the ceremony since the Academy often ignores comic book films (and puerile comedies, meaning without a Heath Ledger nomination, RDJ would’ve also been shunned); Josh Brolin would be a second place pick for me

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Amy Adams for “Doubt”
• Penélope Cruz for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
• Viola Davis for “Doubt”
• Taraji P. Henson for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
• Marisa Tomei for “The Wrestler”

Personal opinion: Cruz is also my (and the odds’) favorite, with Marisa Tomei in second; Viola Davis (second in odds) is hard to compare with the other performances since her screentime only consisted of one 12 minute scene, but Judi Dench was able to steal a trophy with only 8 minutes of screentime (across 4 scenes) for “Shakespeare in Love”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• “Frozen River”: Courtney Hunt
• “Happy-Go-Lucky”: Mike Leigh
• “In Bruges”: Martin McDonagh
• “Milk”: Dustin Lance Black
• “WALL-E”: Andrew Stanton et al.

Personal opinion: Pixar has amassed too many writing nominations to be ignored for “WALL-E,” which according to many should’ve made the Best Film shortlist (I preferred it to each film in that category); this was my least hated category, where films worth consideration actually were nominated (“Happy-Go-Lucky” really should’ve also had a Best Actress nomination, if not Best Director or Best Film); if there were an Oscars God, “Synechdoche, New York” would be taking home a trophy here

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”: Eric Roth, Robin Wicord
• “Doubt”: John Patrick Shanley
• “Frost/Nixon”: Peter Morgan
• “The Reader”: David Hare
• “Slumdog Millionaire”: Simon Beaufoy

Personal opinion: This is my most hated category of the year: “Frost/Nixon” and “Button” are the only films in consideration that should be on this list (even if “Button” barely resembles its source material); other films I would’ve been happy to see included here are “Paranoid Park,” “Let the Right One In” and “Tell No One”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• “Changeling”: Tom Stern***
• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”: Claudio Miranda
• “The Dark Knight”: Wally Pfister
• “The Reader”: Roger Deakings, Chris Menges
• “Slumdog Millionaire”: Anthony Dod Mantle

Personal opinion: Of these options, I was most impressed cinematographically by “The Dark Knight,” with its absolutely stunning aerial segues and claustrophobic spacing during the batbike chase, not to mention the pyrotechnic hospital explosion; my second place pick would be “Button,” but everyone seems itching to give “Slumdog” a big night; again, this is still one of the “prestigious” categories, and comic book movies are deemed not to fit the bill

BEST EDITING

• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”: Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter
• “The Dark Knight”: Lee Smith
• “Frost/Nixon”: Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill
• “Milk”: Eliot Graham
• “Slumdog Millionaire”: Chris Dickens

Personal opinion: I’m again with “TDK” here, which is second in odds to “Slumdog,” with a second place vote for “Button;” I enjoyed “TDK”‘s quick edits, choosing to show only a glimpse of Harvey Dent rather than a distended (and unnecessary) scene about why he came back after an assasination attempt, after a group of cops were discussing whether he would be seen again any time soon; I loathe drawn out explanations of obvious actions, and “TDK” avoided these with aplomb (even though for some, Harvey Dent’s sudden turn could’ve been better examined, but I think intimations to his volatile personality were given since his introduction in a court room and his first assasination attempt)

BEST ART DIRECTION

• “Changeling”: James J. Murakami, Gary Fettis***
• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”: Donald Graham Burt, Victor J. Zolfo
• “The Dark Knight”: Nathan Crowley, Peter Lando
• “The Duchess”: Michael Carlin, Rebecca Alleway***
• “Revolutionary Road”: Kristi Zea, Debra Schutt***

Personal opinion: Okay, time for total guesses; although “Button” is the odds favorite, I also was impressed by its ability to recreate the past and follow its progress up to Hurricane Katrina

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• “Australia”: Catherine Martin***
• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”: Jacqueline West
• “The Duchess”: Michael O’Connor***
• “Milk”: Danny Glicker
• “Revolutionary Road”: Albert Wolsky***

Personal opinion: No idea; the two I saw were impressive, but the other three are period pieces which tend to impress the Academy (“The Duchess” is the odds favorite)

BEST MAKEUP

• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”: Greg Cannon
• “The Dark Knight”: John Caglione Jr., Conor O’Sullivan
• “Hellboy II: The Golden Army”: Mike Elizade, Thomas Floutz

Personal opinion: So now that I’m deep in the “underqualified” territory for me (even though I’ve seen all of the candidates), I’m going with the pick that most cosmetically impressed me, which managed to capture Guillermo del Toro’s fancies of the imagination using the now old-school techniques of makeup and set design; “TDK” created an indelible Joker, but I don’t think much else makeup-wise was worthy, and wasn’t “Button” mostly CGI? I’m glad “The Reader” wasn’t included for its risible aged Kate Winslet scene

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”: Alexandre Desplat
• “Defiance”: James Newton Howard***
• “Milk”: Danny Elfman
• “Slumdog Millionaire”: A.R. Rahman
• “WALL-E”: Thomas Newman

Personal opinion: The most reliable element for “Slumdog” was its soundtrack

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• “Slumdog Millionaire”: A.R. Rahman, Sampooran Sigh Gulzar (“Jai Ho”)
• “Slumdog Millionaire”: A.R. Rahman, M.I.A. (“O Saya”)
• “WALL-E”: Peter Gabriel, Thomas Newman (“Down to Earth”)

Personal opinion: With an absent Bruce Springsteen (even though after the effective ending of “The Wrestler,” I felt compelled to stay in my seat when The Boss began singing), I will go with Peter Gabriel (who will refrain from performing Sunday in protest of a shortened performance time) because I think votes will be split between the “Slumdog” contenders; Why don’t you decide?

BEST SOUND MIXING

• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”: David Parker et al.
• “The Dark Knight”: Ed Novick et al.
• “Slumdog Millionaire”: Ian Tapp et al.
• “WALL-E”: Tom Myers et al.
• “Wanted”: Chris Jenkins et al.

Personal opinion: I’m not qualified for this, but I bet “TDK” put a lot more money in this than its competitors

BEST SOUND EDITING

• “The Dark Knight”: Richard King
• “Iron Man”: Frank E. Fulner, Christopher Boyes
• “Slumdog Millionaire”: Tom Sayers
• “WALL-E”: Ben Burtt, Matthew Wood
• “Wanted”: Wyle Stateman

Personal opinion: What exactly is the difference between this and sound mixing?

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”: Eric Barba et al.
• “The Dark Knight”: Nick Davis et al.
• “Iron Man”: John Nelson et al.

Personal opinion: I was most impressed by “Button”‘s ability to make a reverse-aging Brad Pitt

BEST ANIMATED FILM

• “Bolt”: Chris Williams, Byron Howard
• “Kung Fu Panda”: John Stevenson, Mark Osborne
• “WALL-E”: Andrew Stanton

Personal opinion: Although I liked the other two films, I think “WALL-E” is the no-brainer winner.

BEST FORIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• “The Baader Meinhof Complex” (Germany)***
• “The Class” (France)***
• “Departures” (Japan)***
• “Revanche” (Austria)***
• “Waltz with Bashir” (Israel)***

Personal opinion: The first category for which I’ve not seen a single nominee; I’ll go with “Waltz” because of its immense buzz, but “The Class” did earn itself a Palme D’Or

BEST DOCUMENTARY

• “The Betrayal: Nerakhoon”: Ellen Kuras, Thavisouk Phrasavath***
• “Encounters at the End of the World”: Werner Herzog, Henry Kaiser
• “The Garden”: Scott Hamilton Kennedy***
• “Man on Wire”: James Marsh, Simon Chinn
• “Trouble the Water”: Tia Lessin, Carl Deal***

Personal opinion: I loved both the films I saw, but if I have to pick a favorite…

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

• “The Conscience of Nhem En”: Steven Okazaki***
• “The Final Inch”: Irene Taylor Brodsky, Tom Grant***
• “Smile Pinki”: Megan Mylan***
• “The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306″: Adarm Pertofsky, Margaret Hyde***

Personal opinion: Went with the odds favorite since I have no idea or opinion about these

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

• “Auf der Strecke”: Reto Caffi***
• “Manon sure le bitume”: Elizabeth Marre, Olivier Pont***
• “New Boy”: Steph Green, Tamara Anghie***
• “Grisen”: Tivi Magnusson, Dorthe Warnø Høgh***
• “Spielzeugland”: Jochen Alexander Freydank***

Personal opinion: Again without a clue so went with the odds favorite

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

• “La Maison en petite cubes”: Kunio Katô***
• “Lavatory-Lovestory”: Konstantin Bronzit
• “Oktapodi”: Errud Mokhberi, Thierry Marchand
• “Presto”: Doug Sweetland
• “This Way Up”: Alan Smith, Adam Foulkes

Personal opinion: This is a difficult category; Why not go with the first one I saw? Pixar does have some experience winning this category in the past (“For the Birds,” which was double-billed with “Monster, Inc.”), but “This Way Up” has much levity despite its grave focus (guffaw!), and “Oktapodi” is brief but tasty (bringing to mind the eating a live octopus scene in “Old Boy”); so to finish this off, here is one option for your consideration [Update: all of the links have been killed, so could only re-find one, which may also be short-lived]

***

For a final count, I have “Slumdog,” “Button,” and “TDK” all in the lead with four trophies each, “WALL-E” next with three, and nine other films with one win each. “The Reader” and “Frost/Nixon” are the only Best Film nominees without any gold in my predictions.

Now, I’ll be interested in how these picks compare with the actual winners, but I expect to be disappointed many times, since, well, what is the Academy good for except undeserved recognition?

I expect a blasé affair on Sunday, but there’s potential for a pleasant surprise or two. Maybe in this economic downturn there will be redemption for the deserving underdog. But probably not.